El Nino rains to pour down early October

EL NINO will start early next month but it is not expected to unleash the fury and devastation of the 1997 downpours.  In fact, it is likely to be relatively mild.  Deputy director of meteorology Peter Ambenje yesterday said most parts of the country will receive the first showers in the first or second week of October.

The rains will be heaviest in Western and Nyanza, which are already receiving showers.  The forecast shows the entire country will receive increased rains until January next year.  Ambenje said all of Kenya – with the exception of Turkana and northern Pokot – will receive at least 125 per cent of the average October-December rains.  He gave the seasonal forecast at the Meteorological Department in Nairobi.  “Signs have indicated this is a strong El Nino event, but we have to wait and see,” Ambenje said.

Downpours expected: Predictions for October-December, showing increased rainfall over most parts of Kenya.

The rains will begin and end at varying times across the country.  The Coast, Northeastern, Central and Nairobi, Embu and Meru counties will receive the rains in the second week of October until January.  The same applies to the central Rift Valley counties like Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado and Nyahururu.  Southeastern counties, including Voi, Taita Taveta, Makindu and Tana River, will receive the first rains in the second to third week of October.  Ambenje said although this El Nino has been described as the biggest since 1962.

“El Nino doesn’t always bring heavy rains. In fact, we had El Nino in 2002-03, 2006-07 and 2009-10 and they went largely unnoticed,” he said.  Ambenje said the rains will benefit some farmers.  They will also fill up hydropower dams and Kenya may not experience the usual power outages early next year.  Head of the Nyayo House-based National Disaster Operations Centre Col Nathan Kigotho said they have already mapped areas likely to experience mudslides and lightning strikes.

“We are dispatching officers next week to all counties to work on disaster preparedness,” he said.  Kigotho warned against sheltering under trees during storms to avoid lightning strikes.  “In urban areas we are urging the authorities to clear drainages,” he said.

Source: The Star